No Warming in the deep ocean

Joanne Nova is a climate change clown. She's claiming the deep ocean is cooling. To be fair, she does notice that the paper she cites is talking about the abyssal ocean, deeper than 2000 metres, but she she then makes a stupid claim that science can't find the missing energy that must be in the climate system after the recent "pause".

Erm, you're looking in the wrong place: when science says it has found the missing heat in the deep ocean, it means the deep ocean up to 1500 metres.

Chen & Tung (2014), courtesy of Skeptical Science.

The denier bots who paste this stuff round the internet have left out the bit about deeper than 2000 metres completely and are using Wunnsch's paper to claim no warming in the deep ocean full stop:

"Wunsch et al claim a deep ocean cooling of 100th of a degree over the last 19 years, but admit that it could be noise."

Selective blindness.

Joanne Nova goes on to say that even though the deep ocean is cooling, any warming is due to undersea volcanoes. Parp! Parp!

Arctic death spiral reversed.

Arctic sea ice has been in decline since the beginning of the satellite record- it's in a death spiral.

Source: haveland.com

According to David Rose and Judith Curry in the Daily Mail, the death spiral is reversing.

Which is of course what climate change deniers were claiming after the summer of 2007, when Arctic sea ice "recoved" from a new record minimum.

Source: NSIDC.

David Rose has a history of misunderstanding and misrepresenting climate science, but Judith Curry is a scientist and should know better.

There are many points above the trend line in the graph above, but they didn't mean that the trend had stopped.

Arctic sea ice is subject to many factors that affect the summer extent. Arctic warming is one, but it is also affected by

• Weather- a warmer or colder that average summer, or sunnier or cloudier.
• Wind direction- ice can be blown around the Arctic into areas where it is more or less likely to melt, or where it may be expelled from the Arctic.
• Storms- a big storm at the end of the melt season can break up thin ice- and if it's followed by some sunny weather, the sun will hit dark open water, causing more warming and melting.

These factors are essentially random- one year can be a "good" year for ice melt, another a "bad" year", and it's pretty much down to chance.

Imagine throwing two dice and getting a double six: the best combination of factors for ice melt and a record ice minimum. Although the chance of throwing another double six next throw remains the same, over a period of many throws, you wouldn't expect to see two double six throws together very often. More likely you'll see ideal ice melt conditions one year followed by less ideal conditions for a few years- and minimum ice melt extent above the trend.

This is exactly what you see in the graphs above. Climate change deniers proved themselves to be clowns after 2007 by predicting "recovery". Did they fool anybody? To try it again? Shame on you!

With the next throw of a double six in the coming summers, when conditions line up to be ideal for ice melt, expect a new record low. When subsequent years are less favourable to ice melt, expect the deniers to claim "recovery" again.

(See Albert Einstein quotes to the right.)